Great Expectations $NCT $NRF

Amazing how changing your expectations can affect the outcome. Take screening for stocks as an example.

I used to screen for 9% dividend yield and look for stocks that were trending up in price. Then, I started to look for 14% yields, then 10% yields. I’m sticking with 10% dividend yield for the time being because higher yields are much more volatile, and yields above 15% usually are stocks that are trending down in price. Like bleeding to death, only with my money. I’d rather look for stocks that are growing.

Then, I decided to target yearly returns as well. I started targeting 10% return, then quickly changed that to 25% return. I fully expect to raise that very shortly to 33% return, then to 45% return. I even have a 75% return scan all fired up and working. What I’ve found is this; the lower returns (10% and 25%) have symbols that come into and go out of ‘favor’ on a regular basis. The same holds true for higher returns (33%, 45%, and even 75%), although the symbols start behaving a bit differently with the higher returns.

I probably won’t go with the 75% return, although those symbols are included in the scan for 45% along with other symbols and, all of those symbols also show up in the scan for 33% return. All of those symbols show up in the scan for 25% return, and 10% return.

I’ll stick to the 10% dividend yield, so I’ll still ‘get paid’ for owning stocks and won’t have to wait until I sell to get money. But, it would sure be nice to get a nice chunk of change for owning a stock while I was getting paid to own them.

I’ve already posted the ‘watch list’ for today, and that was based on 10% dividend yield and a 25% return;

SYM NAME LAST 1-YR RETURN % 7 DAY ADX DIVIDEND YIELD
AMTG Apollo Residential Mortgage In 20.79 28.65% Buy 14.57%
BKCC Blackrock Kelso Capital Corp. 10.09 31.28% Buy 10.39%
CYS Cys Investments Inc 14.56 31.00% Buy 13.88%
DX Dynex Capital 10.62 33.69% Buy 10.97%
IVR Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc 20.93 38.95% Buy 12.60%
MCC Medley Capital Corp. 13.37 45.19% Buy 10.80%
MCGC Mcg Capital Corp. 4.9 29.05% Buy 11.57%
MFA Mfa Financial Inc 8.29 25.71% Buy 25.73%
MITT Ag Mortgage Investment Trust 24.22 48.67% Buy 11.83%
NCT Newcastle Investment Corp. 7.78 79.48% Buy 10.44%
NRF Northstar Realty Finance 6.02 86.91% Buy 10.85%
PMT Pennymac Mortgage Investment Tru 22.12 45.40% Buy 10.01%
PSEC Prospect Capital Corp. 11.71 52.36% Buy 10.53%
TICC Ticc Capital 10.88 34.45% Buy 10.09%
TWO Two Harbors Investments Corp 11.72 40.78% Buy 13.70%

The ‘watch list’ for today, if it was based on 10% dividend yield and a 33% return;

SYM NAME LAST 1-YR RETURN % 7 DAY ADX DIVIDEND YIELD
DX Dynex Capital 10.64 33.69% Buy 10.97%
IVR Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc 20.93 38.95% Buy 12.60%
MCC Medley Capital Corp. 13.37 45.19% Buy 10.80%
MITT Ag Mortgage Investment Trust 24.23 48.67% Buy 11.83%
NCT Newcastle Investment Corp. 7.77 79.48% Buy 10.44%
NRF Northstar Realty Finance 6.03 86.91% Buy 10.85%
PMT Pennymac Mortgage Investment Tru 22.15 45.40% Buy 10.01%
PSEC Prospect Capital Corp. 11.72 52.36% Buy 10.53%
TICC Ticc Capital 10.88 34.45% Buy 10.09%
TWO Two Harbors Investments Corp 11.72 40.78% Buy 13.70%

The ‘watch list’ for today, if it was based on 10% dividend yield and a 45% return;

SYM NAME LAST 1-YR RETURN % 7 DAY ADX DIVIDEND YIELD
MCC Medley Capital Corp. 13.37 45.19% Buy 10.80%
MITT Ag Mortgage Investment Trust 24.22 48.67% Buy 11.83%
NCT Newcastle Investment Corp. 7.78 79.48% Buy 10.44%
NRF Northstar Realty Finance 6.02 86.91% Buy 10.85%
PMT Pennymac Mortgage Investment Tru 22.13 45.40% Buy 10.01%
PSEC Prospect Capital Corp. 11.71 52.36% Buy 10.53%

The ‘watch list’ for today, if it was based on 10% dividend yield and a 75% return;

SYM NAME LAST 1-YR RETURN % 7 DAY ADX DIVIDEND YIELD
NCT Newcastle Investment Corp. 7.78 79.48% Buy 10.44%
NRF Northstar Realty Finance 6.03 86.91% Buy 10.85%

As you can see, the symbol list dwindles a bit with each increase in yearly return, while keeping the dividend yield at 10% or higher. The higher the yearly return, the closer the dividend yield is to 10% while the number of symbols gets fewer.

I can tell you that I liked the results I was getting when I was just screening for dividend yield, but it was a lot more work looking for symbols that were also uptrending. When I added finviz.com and barchart.com to the mix, I did away with screening on dividend.com completely. I like finviz.com, but I liked barchart.com better for screening, so that’s my current choice. FWIW, I tried stockfetcher.com, but the results were not reliable at all.

I can also tell you that I like the results when moving from 10% yearly return up to 25%, and will definitely move up to a 33% targeted return shortly, and may follow up with a move up to 45% targeted yearly return. All of this while still maintaining a minimum requirement of 10% dividend yield. A move up to a 75% yearly return is not yet in the works, but it is ready for rollout should the opportunity arise.

Be on the lookout for the rollout of the new screens, with slightly fewer symbols. I believe this will make for better, more stable choices.

 

 

 

 


Pat Rosenheim
(PandA Trader)
#HYHRD High Yield
High Return Dividend Portfolio
pat.rosenheim@gmail.com
http://www.HYHRD.com

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